President Donald Trump will not attend the upcoming Quad Summit in India has sent ripples through the global community. The Quad comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia has been a key platform to promote security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Trump’s decision comes at a delicate moment when global alliances are shifting and new regional strategies are being formed.
The Breakdown in Trump–Modi Relationship
At the center of this development lies a growing rift between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Only a few months ago, both leaders spoke confidently about strengthening trade, technology, and defense ties. However, personal disagreements and sharp policy clashes have eroded the relationship.
A critical turning point came during a phone call in June, following the G7 Summit in Canada. Trump told Modi that he had played a key role in securing a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. Modi strongly pushed back, saying that India handled the matter on its own.
Tariffs and Trade Disputes Add Fuel to the Fire
Trade has been another major source of friction. Trump’s administration slapped high tariffs on Indian exports first at 25 percent, later doubled to 50 percent. The U.S. justified these measures by pointing to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. For New Delhi, however, the tariffs felt less like policy and more like punishment. Indian officials described the decision as unfair and damaging to bilateral trust.
The tariffs hit multiple industries, including textiles and metals, and hurt Indian exporters who had long relied on access to the U.S. market. The dispute also slowed progress on a shared goal of expanding trade to $500 billion by 2030.
India’s Shift Toward China and Russia
As relations with Washington cooled, Modi began strengthening ties with other powers. Over the past few months, he has attended high-level summits in Beijing and Moscow, meeting directly with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. These meetings signaled India’s intention to keep its options open and avoid overdependence on the United States.
While India is unlikely to abandon the Quad altogether, its willingness to lean toward alternative partnerships is a clear warning to Washington. Many Indian analysts describe this as a pragmatic step—a balancing act to protect national interests in a fast-changing global order.
Relationship Undermined by Personal Politics
The U.S. India partnership has always combined strategic alignment with personal diplomacy. Leaders from both sides worked for decades to build trust, focusing on defense cooperation, economic growth, and democratic values. The sudden collapse in personal trust between Trump and Modi undermines this legacy.
China, in particular, stands to benefit from these divisions. If India drifts away from Washington, Beijing may gain more influence in shaping regional order. Moscow also sees opportunity in drawing New Delhi closer through defense deals and energy partnerships.
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