Belgium is increasingly at the center of a sensitive diplomatic debate over the Western Sahara, a region that has long stood at the crossroads of North African geopolitics. Recent signals from Brussels suggest that the country may move toward recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed territory. While no official announcement has been made, the ongoing discussions indicate a significant rethinking of Belgium’s foreign policy in light of regional security, economic opportunities, and evolving European dynamics.
Historical context of Western Sahara conflict and Morocco’s claims
The Western Sahara conflict has remained unresolved for nearly five decades. After Spain withdrew from the territory in 1975, Morocco assumed administrative control, citing historical ties and territorial claims. However, the Polisario Front, a liberation movement backed by Algeria, declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic and has since fought for full independence.
The United Nations considers the Western Sahara a “non-self-governing territory” and has called for a referendum on self-determination. Despite these efforts, political stalemate persists, as Morocco rejects independence as an option but promotes its autonomy plan, offering local governance under Moroccan sovereignty. This plan has gained international traction in recent years, creating new diplomatic realities.
Belgium’s evolving stance on Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara
Belgium has long aligned itself with the European Union’s official policy, which supports a UN-led resolution to the dispute without taking sides. Yet the situation is changing. In 2022, Spain shifted its position and endorsed Morocco’s autonomy proposal as “the most realistic” path forward. Germany soon followed suit, and other European countries have since softened their neutrality.
Belgium, as a founding EU member and the host of key EU institutions in Brussels, holds particular weight in shaping continental foreign policy. Belgian officials have recently acknowledged Morocco’s strategic role in ensuring regional security, managing migration flows, and strengthening economic cooperation with Europe. These acknowledgments suggest a gradual shift toward favoring Morocco’s position, even if formal recognition has not yet been declared.
Security and migration cooperation between Belgium and Morocco
Belgium’s reassessment is deeply connected to security and migration concerns. Morocco has become a vital partner in curbing irregular migration across the Mediterranean, preventing thousands of migrants from reaching European shores. Beyond migration, Morocco also plays a frontline role in counter-terrorism operations across North Africa and the Sahel.
For Belgium, a stronger partnership with Morocco enhances its ability to tackle transnational crime, extremism, and instability in regions that directly impact European security.
Economic opportunities for Belgium in Morocco and Western Sahara
Economic considerations are another factor driving Belgium’s deliberations. Morocco has positioned itself as a hub for renewable energy, infrastructure development, and trade in Africa. The Western Sahara region, rich in natural resources such as phosphates and fisheries, is also central to Morocco’s economic development plans.
Belgian businesses, especially in renewable energy and port logistics, could benefit from enhanced access if Belgium strengthens ties with Morocco through recognition. However, Belgium also risks diplomatic friction with Algeria, one of Europe’s most important energy suppliers. Balancing energy partnerships with Algeria while deepening cooperation with Morocco is one of the biggest challenges for Belgian policymakers.
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