As the war in Ukraine drags into its fourth year, analysts suggest that there remain two decisive actions the West and Kyiv could take that might finally force Russia to halt its aggression. According to former U.S. official David Petraeus, a combination of increased military support to Ukraine especially air-defence and offensive capabilities and freeing up frozen European reserves for Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction could tilt the balance decisively.
Strengthening Ukraine’s air-defence and frontline resilience
Petraeus argues the first critical move is to help Ukraine secure its skies effectively, enabling it to intercept Russian missiles, drones, and aerial attacks. If Ukrainian airspace can be defended robustly including boosting domestic drone-production and acquiring advanced anti-ballistic systems Russia loses one of its key strategic advantages.
Unlocking frozen European assets to shore up Ukraine’s economy and war effort
The second move involves Europe using around $200–250 billion in frozen reserves (currently held in European banks) as collateral to raise funds potentially via Euroclear bonds to funnel into Ukraine. That massive financial injection, Petraeus believes, would significantly enhance Ukraine’s ability to sustain the war, restock munitions, weapons and ammunition, and support civilian resilience for years.
If implemented, these twin measures could give Ukraine a long-term strategic advantage, reduce Russian leverage, and push Moscow toward negotiating rather than continuing the war.
Context war still far from over
Despite these proposals, Russia remains entrenched. In 2025, Moscow continues to maintain pressure on multiple fronts in Ukraine. Its drone and missile production remains high, and attacks on infrastructure and civilian areas persist.
Moreover, the conflict appears deeply entrenched: analysts note that two key bets Russia made — a collapse of Ukrainian defences or waning Western support have so far failed. But Russia still gambles that shifting dynamics or prolonged war fatigue might eventually reverse the trend.
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