The recent surge in Afghan refugees returning from neighboring countries like Pakistan and Iran has precipitated a mounting housing crisis in Kabul a city already grappling with fragile infrastructure and strained resources. In a 2025 UN-Habitat report, it was revealed that four out of five Kabul residents now live in informal housing areas, highlighting the city’s overwhelming vulnerability .
How sudden Afghan refugee returns strain Kabul rental market
Kabul’s rental market, already limited in capacity, is buckling under the sudden influx of returnees. Landlords, seeing an opportunity, have significantly raised rents In Herat, a survey by Salam Watandar shows rent increases of 40% over three years, driven largely by returnee pressures and economic decline .
Landlords, aware of the desperation among returnees, have wasted no time in taking advantage of the situation. Many have raised rental prices sharply, in some cases doubling rates within months.
In parts of Kabul, homes that once cost 8,000 to 10,000 Afghanis a month are now fetching over 18,000 Afghanis, placing them far beyond the reach of working-class families.
Why returnee influx creates overcrowded dwellings and soaring housing instability
As returnees flood Kabul, temporary shelters and camps become dangerously overcrowded. The IFRC reports that nearly one million Afghans have returned from Pakistan in the past 18 months, with 145,000 arriving in just one month.
Many families remain crammed into overcrowded tents, with up to four families sharing a single shelter conditions that intensify housing instability and heighten humanitarian concerns.a staggering eight-fold jump compared to previous months.
How forced deportations from Pakistan and Iran intensify Kabul housing crisis
This wave of return is fueled not just by voluntary repatriation but by aggressive deportation policies. Pakistan has resumed mass deportations of Afghan refugees including those holding Proof of Registration cardsdrawing strong criticism from the UNHCR as a violation of the principle of non-refoulement.
According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies , nearly one million Afghans have returned from Pakistan over the past 18 months, with 145,000 arriving in just one month an eight-fold increase compared to previous months.
Such numbers leave little time for humanitarian agencies to set up adequate accommodation. The result is overcrowding of an alarming scale, with some tents sheltering up to four families. In these conditions, privacy is non-existent, and disease risks are high, particularly among children.
How urban development projects aim to scale with New Kabul City but long-term solutions lag
Authorities have taken steps to strengthen Kabul’s housing infrastructure. For example, they launched the New Kabul City development a major residential scheme designed to accommodate 3 million residents over 30 year in August 2023. In addition, the Qatar Township project plans to deliver hundreds of modern flats along with community facilities. However, these projects offer medium- to long-term relief, while the current crisis demands immediate action.
The sudden influx has ignited soaring rents, overcrowded shelters, and deepened humanitarian needs, compounded by aggressive deportation policies and slow-moving urban development. Without urgent funding, coordinated reintegration strategies, and scalable shelter solutions, the crisis threats to spiral further.
